Decryption of Josette Sicsic, Futuroscope
Researchers from the Shift Project* have just presented their ninth report on the future of mobility, especially long-distance travel. A small event in the world of travel, energy, weather. But it cannot be said that this Report is the result of the work of many researchers under the leadership of the highly publicized JM. Jancovici, who has been sounding the alarm on the subject for years, is proposing very new solutions. On the other hand, it confirms the relevance of all the proposals that have been considered and studied for some time. It also confirms that the reduction of air and car transport is imperative and urgent. What is not earned! Finally, he invites tourism actors to roll up their sleeves and collaborate as quickly as possible.
Shift Project researchers present their ninth report on the future of mobility – Depositphotos.com Autor carloscastilla
… Hardly a day goes by without climate-related issues and the need to act as quickly as possible in favor of decarbonization, being invited to the news table.
It must be said that the increasingly spectacular disasters that shake the world, such as the floods in South Africa that killed more than 300 people and those in the Philippines, cannot make us forget the point of no return to which we are heading for lack of action. efficient and fast. And it’s not the latest IPCC report that can bring a little balm to the hearts of younger generations.
because we can’t anymore look away » and we can no longer dream that some invisible hand will come to our aid and end the suffocation that awaits us. The damage is done. ” Late, it’s too late it’s even the title of a special issue I published in 2002! 20 years ago !
To confirm the urgency, on the same day as this Report was published, Air France announced its plan in favor of decarbonizing its flights: the ” Air France ACT which is based on 3 pillars: primarily to reduce direct emissions generated by Air France’s operations, reduce indirect emissions, upstream and downstream from the company’s activities, and also contribute to projects to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
On the TourMag screens, Gérard Feldzer indicated the need to reduce aircraft speed… But what does this report say that we advise you to read carefully on the website: https://theshiftproject.org/
Train, plane, car: 7600 km per year
In terms of means of transport, car, train and plane make up the majority of trips: 90%. In terms of distances travelled, the plane and the car largely dominate and constitute the largest part of the carbon footprint of the French, ie 9%. The train, in turn, which represents 14% of trips, emits 40 times less greenhouse gases than the car.
Second observation: in the coming years, gaseous and liquid energies will be less and less available, the production of electricity will not be unlimited and the supply of energy some materials can be tricky, especially those made from rare metals like lithium, cobalt, nickel…
Consequently, everyone will have understood that it is necessary to act and act quickly in favor of decarbonization, in particular long-distance mobility which, in order to contribute as all sectors, to the objective of carbon neutrality, must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in an annual fee of 5% per year!
Making air travel resilient
In this energy-limited context, long-distance travel must therefore be electrified and air traffic gradually reduced.
But, of course, it is about carrying out this project while preserving as much as possible the desires and freedom to travel, discover, take a vacation or visit loved ones.
For the authors of the Report, as for so many other climate activists, the first target is indeed the long-haul plane that should gradually reduce its flights and be replaced by new offers of intercontinental travel.
But protecting the flights that connect France to the overseas departments. Globally, it is estimated that the air quota should be reduced by 35%.
Decrease car share
The car, in turn, which provides 72% of trips, will have to drop 20% and occupy a less central place in our trips than today. It will be electric, small, light, not very powerful and economical.
Complementing train travel, the car will be part of the range of mobility offers for tourists at your holiday resort. As for eco-driving education, it should be generalized and speed on the motorway should be limited to 110 km/h or less.
In relation to business travel, the Report thought about it. will be for companies to commit to carbon rationalization of employee travel and conversion of their company car fleet for sober and electric vehicles.
Which obviously implies that the terminals exist and therefore multiply at the planned rate…
The announced victory of the rail, but for when?
In France, the use of the railways should be favored to limit the use of the car, but with the implementation of additional services in intermodality with the train that will make it possible to carry out the last kilometers of the trip and circulate once in the resort.
Local tourist agents, the Report suggests, will have to act in favor of these movements of tourists who came without a car and offer new and attractive tourist offers.
” It is, in fact, about preserving the essence of travel while decarbonizing it and accommodating the energy contraction. “. Improve, ” We propose to develop tourist offers in France and Europe, linking offers of transport, accommodation and activities. »
And finally, the researchers explain: travelers will be able to come without cars “.
Well, very good, but it’s already done!
But that is exactly what we are already doing. Just read the interview with the director of CRT Nouvelle-Aquitaine to understand that the tourism sector has indeed taken the bull by the horns and is active in many territories.
As for the effort to de-seasonalize tourist activities and flows, which would make it possible to make the best use of transport and accommodation services without having to over-dimension them, it is also an old moon for tourist agents.
So what’s up ?
A tourism carbon governance plan
Actually, the only new idea conveyed by the ninth installment of the Change Project Report for this ideal moment in which tourism will be energy sober and decarbonised, the establishment of carbon governance for tourismat different territorial levels, relying on regional and departmental tourism committees and Tourism Offices as operational relays for rural actors.
And for that, it will be necessary to train all tourism stakeholders in energy-climate issues. How ? It must be seen and studied closely. But, Ademe (Agency for the Environment and Energy Management) seems to us to have already made good progress on the matter, right?
In any case, and finally, the authors of Projeto Turno indicate that some of their measures would allow results in the next five years, while others should be activated quickly to have multiplier effects in the next five years.
Governance and stakeholder support/control structures must be implemented from the next five years to start and maintain the effort.
Finally, it should be noted that the authors warn against technological solutions such as aviation hydrogenation and biofuels…
On the other hand, new jobs will have to be created because in the air sector these will be halved, while in the rail sector they will be multiplied by two!
*Long-distance mobility is defined as mobility that takes more than 80 km straight from home, or 100 km by road.
According to national surveys – and in particular the Popular Mobility Survey carried out in 2018/2019, just before the COVID crisis – each resident of mainland France makes 6.3 long-distance trips per year, each of these trips representing an average 1200 km traveled (go + return).
For holiday reasons, the French travel significantly further than for other long-distance travel reasons. Thus, approximately 50% of the distances traveled by the French for their
trips are for vacation purposes.
Josette Sicsic – DR
Having developed the newspaper Touriscopie for over 20 years, she is still on the bridge of the present where she decodes the present to predict the future. On the website www.tourmag.com, section Futuroscopie, she publishes prospective and analytical articles several times a week.
Contact: 06 14 47 99 04